tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 14:55, is the safest bet: 55% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 17% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2087 Southwest MCI 18:15 SMF 19:54 34% 10% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MCI 06:00 → DEN 06:56UA 355 1h 04m Denver DEN 08:00 → SMF 09:35UA 2149 5h 35m 93% 83%
DeltaDetails → MCI 06:23 → MSP 07:54DL 1635 2h 30m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 7h 46m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:05 → SLC 08:44DL 2897 2h 51m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 7h 11m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → MCI 08:50 → DEN 09:41UA 1384 2h 11m Denver DEN 11:52 → SMF 13:36UA 2673 6h 46m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → MCI 07:00 → SEA 08:57DL 2105 1h 13m Seattle SEA 10:10 → SMF 12:17DL 4125 · flown by SkyWest 7h 17m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → MCI 18:00 → SLC 19:41DL 2903 3h 23m Salt Lake City SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582 7h 44m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → MCI 15:55 → LAX 17:20DL 1517 1h 21m Los Angeles LAX 18:41 → SMF 20:10DL 3759 · flown by SkyWest 6h 15m 93% 74%
AmericanDetails → MCI 05:31 → DFW 07:23AA 1098 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:23 → SMF 10:06AA 2081 6h 35m 90% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MCI 16:26 → LAX 18:10UA 5489 · flown by SkyWest 48m Los Angeles LAX 18:58 → SMF 20:37UA 2075 6h 11m 17% 12%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON