Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 23 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1548 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–48%.

Safest bet that day DL 1548 MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 4025 MCO 17:24 → ATL 19:25 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1548 Delta Flight history →	MCO 05:30	ATL 07:05	4%	2%	0.8%	95%
DL 1494 Delta Flight history →	MCO 06:15	ATL 07:58	5%	2%	0.9%	94%
DL 2080 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:05	ATL 08:46	8%	2%	0.8%	90%
DL 1463 Delta Flight history →	MCO 08:05	ATL 09:42	8%	3%	0.9%	90%
WN 2668 Southwest	MCO 08:00	ATL 09:37	9%	2%	0.9%	no record
DL 1505 Delta Flight history →	MCO 09:05	ATL 10:45	10%	3%	0.9%	88%
DL 2204 Delta Flight history →	MCO 10:05	ATL 11:41	11%	3%	0.9%	89%
DL 1213 Delta Flight history →	MCO 11:05	ATL 12:42	16%	4%	1.1%	84%
DL 1658 Delta Flight history →	MCO 12:05	ATL 13:45	18%	5%	1.1%	81%
F9 1563 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:45	ATL 09:41	21%	7%	1.4%	84%
DL 664 Delta Flight history →	MCO 13:05	ATL 14:44	21%	5%	1.1%	82%
F9 1241 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 10:00	ATL 11:46	24%	10%	1.5%	67%
DL 2035 Delta Flight history →	MCO 20:55	ATL 22:54	25%	10%	1.3%	72%
DL 1497 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:55	ATL 21:48	27%	10%	1.2%	67%
DL 1030 Delta Flight history →	MCO 14:05	ATL 15:55	27%	8%	1.2%	75%
DL 1742 Delta Flight history →	MCO 18:52	ATL 20:54	29%	10%	1.2%	55%
DL 1150 Delta Flight history →	MCO 17:45	ATL 19:47	29%	12%	1.2%	60%
WN 329 Southwest	MCO 20:50	ATL 22:35	32%	11%	1.3%	no record
DL 1372 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:40	ATL 17:30	33%	14%	1.5%	67%
DL 1576 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:38	ATL 17:13	34%	12%	1.4%	72%
WN 2669 Southwest	MCO 16:40	ATL 18:17	39%	12%	1.3%	no record
F9 3507 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 18:17	ATL 20:09	47%	17%	2.0%	70%worse than usual
F9 4025 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 17:24	ATL 19:25	48%	21%	2.3%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON