Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4646 at 07:06 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 4646 MCO 07:06 → AUS 08:52 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2675 MCO 19:55 → AUS 21:41 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4646 Southwest	MCO 07:06	AUS 08:52	7%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 4404 Southwest	MCO 09:21	AUS 11:06	14%	3%	0.9%	no record
F9 4523 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 08:02	AUS 09:56	16%	5%	1.3%	86%
DL 2259 Delta Flight history →	MCO 12:35	AUS 14:30	20%	5%	1.1%	82%
DL 794 Delta	MCO 18:21	AUS 20:19	28%	11%	1.5%	no record
WN 4398 Southwest	MCO 13:20	AUS 15:05	29%	9%	1.1%	no record
WN 335 Southwest	MCO 22:42	AUS 00:48	31%	11%	1.0%	no record
WN 2674 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 15:45	AUS 17:30	38%	13%	1.8%	72%worse than usual
WN 2675 Southwest	MCO 19:55	AUS 21:41	40%	13%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON