Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4121 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 4121 MCO 07:15 → BDL 10:05 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4984 MCO 20:40 → BDL 23:30 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4121 Southwest	MCO 07:15	BDL 10:05	6%	1%	0.8%	no record
B6 438 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 10:35	BDL 13:29	14%	8%	1.0%	66%
F9 1684 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 11:29	BDL 14:26	20%	9%	1.7%	83%
B6 138 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 16:10	BDL 19:03	30%	16%	1.5%	86%worse than usual
WN 4984 Southwest	MCO 20:40	BDL 23:30	35%	10%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON