Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2679 at 07:21 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 2679 MCO 07:21 → BNA 08:26 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 611 MCO 19:04 → BNA 20:09 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2679 Southwest	MCO 07:21	BNA 08:26	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 2433 Southwest	MCO 09:36	BNA 10:40	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 2681 Southwest	MCO 11:00	BNA 12:04	16%	4%	0.9%	no record
F9 1285 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 09:05	BNA 10:17	20%	7%	0.7%	82%
WN 2688 Southwest	MCO 22:21	BNA 23:26	30%	9%	0.8%	no record
WN 2687 Southwest	MCO 21:02	BNA 22:06	30%	8%	0.8%	no record
WN 2684 Southwest	MCO 14:00	BNA 15:04	30%	9%	1.1%	no record
F9 3559 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 14:54	BNA 16:10	32%	15%	1.1%	76%
WN 2685 Southwest	MCO 16:24	BNA 17:28	33%	9%	1.2%	no record
WN 611 Southwest	MCO 19:04	BNA 20:09	34%	10%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON