Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1461 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 1461 MCO 06:55 → BUF 09:39 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 1586 MCO 17:59 → BUF 20:50 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1461 Southwest	MCO 06:55	BUF 09:39	4%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 1155 Southwest	MCO 14:30	BUF 17:13	35%	13%	1.5%	no record
F9 1692 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 15:04	BUF 17:55	37%	18%	2.4%	75%worse than usual
WN 2852 Southwest	MCO 20:40	BUF 23:23	38%	13%	1.3%	no record
B6 1586 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 17:59	BUF 20:50	39%	17%	1.6%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON