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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 10:45, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Burbank on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:45 → SLC 13:21DL 2031 1h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 15:05 → BUR 16:12DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest 8h 27m 95% 74%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483 9h 40m 99% 74%
FrontierDetails → MCO 05:58 → LAS 07:55F9 1875 3h 19m Las Vegas LAS 11:14 → BUR 12:37F9 4107 9h 39m 99% 72%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677 2h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:16 → BUR 11:34AA 1208 9h 04m 98% 68%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025 50m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 7h 39m 78% 66%
UnitedDetails → MCO 08:09 → SFO 10:53UA 2855 2h 57m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626 10h 08m 100% 62%
JetBlueDetails → MCO 12:06 → JFK 14:46B6 1084 2h 09m New York JFK 16:55 → BUR 20:14B6 358 11h 08m 90% 61%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 15:45 → AUS 17:30WN 2674 1h 25m Austin AUS 18:55 → BUR 20:16WN 548 7h 31m 87% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON