Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: F9 1915 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–29%.

Safest bet that day F9 1915 MCO 05:20 → CLE 07:56 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest F9 1055 MCO 15:25 → CLE 18:03 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 1915 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 05:20	CLE 07:56	7%	3%	1.2%	87%
UA 486 United Flight history →	MCO 11:35	CLE 14:06	13%	5%	1.2%	92%
F9 2667 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 11:05	CLE 13:43	20%	8%	1.6%	82%
UA 583 United	MCO 20:32	CLE 23:04	27%	12%	1.4%	no record
F9 2279 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 19:59	CLE 22:43	29%	15%	1.8%	69%
WN 374 Southwest	MCO 14:10	CLE 16:39	30%	11%	1.3%	no record
F9 1055 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 15:25	CLE 18:03	35%	15%	2.2%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON