Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3275 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34%.

Safest bet that day AA 3275 MCO 05:59 → CLT 07:48 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1611 MCO 17:37 → CLT 19:27 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3275 American	MCO 05:59	CLT 07:48	6%	3%	1.7%	no record
AA 1647 American Flight history →	MCO 06:57	CLT 08:46	9%	4%	1.6%	94%
AA 461 American Flight history →	MCO 07:53	CLT 09:42	11%	4%	2.1%	93%
AA 609 American Flight history →	MCO 09:01	CLT 10:54	12%	4%	1.8%	89%
AA 2170 American	MCO 10:11	CLT 11:59	15%	6%	1.7%	no record
F9 1760 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:31	CLT 08:24	16%	6%	2.0%	65%
AA 2917 American Flight history →	MCO 11:39	CLT 13:27	18%	7%	1.8%	80%
AA 1592 American	MCO 12:42	CLT 14:33	19%	7%	1.7%	no record
AA 1576 American	MCO 13:51	CLT 15:39	23%	8%	1.4%	no record
F9 2452 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 13:11	CLT 15:02	28%	11%	2.2%	74%
AA 1639 American	MCO 15:46	CLT 17:37	33%	13%	2.0%	no record
AA 362 American	MCO 19:47	CLT 21:37	34%	12%	1.3%	no record
AA 1611 American	MCO 17:37	CLT 19:27	34%	13%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON