Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2735 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 2735 MCO 07:00 → CMH 09:21 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3052 MCO 15:45 → CMH 18:04 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2735 Southwest	MCO 07:00	CMH 09:21	4%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 2987 Southwest	MCO 09:15	CMH 11:35	10%	3%	1.0%	no record
WN 1062 Southwest	MCO 21:50	CMH 00:11	30%	9%	1.0%	no record
WN 319 Southwest	MCO 18:20	CMH 20:40	37%	11%	1.1%	no record
F9 2757 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 17:40	CMH 20:14	38%	15%	2.0%	63%
WN 3052 Southwest	MCO 15:45	CMH 18:04	39%	12%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON