Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1350 at 06:26 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 1350 MCO 06:26 → DAL 08:11 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3936 MCO 19:50 → DAL 21:37 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1350 Southwest	MCO 06:26	DAL 08:11	5%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 199 Southwest	MCO 07:31	DAL 09:16	7%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 1429 Southwest	MCO 10:00	DAL 11:45	14%	3%	1.0%	no record
WN 2705 Southwest	MCO 12:47	DAL 14:31	21%	5%	1.2%	no record
WN 990 Southwest	MCO 16:45	DAL 18:29	32%	10%	1.5%	no record
WN 2707 Southwest	MCO 21:43	DAL 23:30	32%	8%	1.1%	no record
WN 3936 Southwest	MCO 19:50	DAL 21:37	38%	11%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON