Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2745 at 06:57 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–43%.

Safest bet that day AA 2745 MCO 06:57 → DCA 09:20 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 2424 MCO 17:34 → DCA 19:59 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2745 American Flight history →	MCO 06:57	DCA 09:20	5%	3%	1.1%	92%
WN 4283 Southwest	MCO 08:55	DCA 11:13	7%	2%	0.9%	no record
B6 2024 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 08:44	DCA 11:00	10%	5%	1.0%	86%
DL 1003 Delta Flight history →	MCO 10:20	DCA 12:32	13%	4%	1.4%	83%
AA 2128 American Flight history →	MCO 11:39	DCA 13:59	18%	8%	1.6%	75%
DL 2729 Delta Flight history →	MCO 20:52	DCA 23:22	27%	10%	2.5%	70%
WN 717 Southwest	MCO 13:15	DCA 15:32	29%	9%	1.3%	no record
AA 958 American Flight history →	MCO 21:19	DCA 23:37	30%	11%	2.3%	58%
AA 1071 American	MCO 14:22	DCA 16:58	30%	12%	2.4%	no record
B6 2324 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 13:40	DCA 15:59	31%	16%	1.5%	59%
AA 1614 American	MCO 19:04	DCA 21:18	37%	13%	2.9%	no record
WN 2710 Southwest	MCO 20:35	DCA 22:50	41%	12%	1.8%	no record
B6 2424 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 17:34	DCA 19:59	43%	21%	2.9%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON