Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2711 at 07:57 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 2711 MCO 07:57 → DEN 09:49 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3311 MCO 17:28 → DEN 19:31 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2711 Southwest	MCO 07:57	DEN 09:49	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
F9 1733 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 05:35	DEN 07:33	9%	3%	1.0%	91%
UA 2307 United	MCO 07:57	DEN 09:51	9%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 2835 Southwest	MCO 09:47	DEN 11:37	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 1022 United Flight history →	MCO 10:00	DEN 12:00	12%	5%	0.9%	90%
UA 1520 United Flight history →	MCO 12:50	DEN 14:51	19%	7%	1.3%	93%worse than usual
WN 2744 Southwest	MCO 21:05	DEN 22:59	27%	8%	0.9%	no record
F9 4919 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 13:07	DEN 15:18	29%	10%	1.4%	85%worse than usual
UA 1770 United Flight history →	MCO 17:17	DEN 19:45	32%	14%	1.3%	69%
UA 667 United	MCO 15:30	DEN 17:23	38%	18%	1.6%	no record
WN 2716 Southwest	MCO 18:12	DEN 20:10	39%	12%	1.0%	no record
WN 2715 Southwest	MCO 14:20	DEN 16:11	40%	14%	1.1%	no record
F9 3311 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 17:28	DEN 19:31	42%	13%	1.6%	76%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON