Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1201 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 1201 MCO 06:05 → DTW 08:54 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 737 MCO 16:45 → DTW 19:23 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1201 Delta Flight history →	MCO 06:05	DTW 08:54	5%	2%	0.9%	93%
DL 2845 Delta Flight history →	MCO 09:02	DTW 11:45	10%	3%	0.9%	91%
F9 2529 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 09:07	DTW 11:55	14%	5%	0.9%	78%
DL 1455 Delta Flight history →	MCO 12:28	DTW 15:16	18%	4%	1.1%	79%
F9 2713 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 13:54	DTW 16:41	25%	8%	1.1%	56%
DL 337 Delta Flight history →	MCO 17:51	DTW 20:54	26%	9%	1.2%	62%
DL 2084 Delta	MCO 14:06	DTW 16:43	28%	8%	1.1%	no record
DL 1123 Delta	MCO 16:07	DTW 18:44	30%	8%	1.3%	no record
WN 737 Southwest	MCO 16:45	DTW 19:23	33%	8%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON