Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1309 at 05:54 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–40%.

Safest bet that day UA 1309 MCO 05:54 → EWR 08:43 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest B6 1728 MCO 21:08 → EWR 23:49 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1309 United Flight history →	MCO 05:54	EWR 08:43	4%	2%	1.1%	96%
UA 1105 United Flight history →	MCO 06:30	EWR 09:15	5%	2%	1.1%	95%
UA 1227 United Flight history →	MCO 09:10	EWR 11:53	9%	3%	1.2%	91%
UA 1081 United	MCO 10:29	EWR 13:10	14%	6%	1.2%	no record
B6 2028 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 09:51	EWR 12:34	16%	5%	1.4%	81%
UA 1330 United	MCO 11:50	EWR 14:44	22%	9%	1.4%	no record
UA 1626 United	MCO 12:56	EWR 15:46	26%	9%	1.4%	no record
F9 2512 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 22:14	EWR 01:00	27%	10%	1.8%	90%worse than usual
UA 2629 United Flight history →	MCO 16:04	EWR 18:57	33%	15%	1.6%	63%
UA 1407 United	MCO 19:19	EWR 22:13	34%	13%	1.5%	no record
UA 1643 United Flight history →	MCO 14:37	EWR 17:30	36%	16%	1.5%	74%
UA 776 United Flight history →	MCO 17:32	EWR 20:28	37%	19%	1.5%	71%
UA 2662 United	MCO 18:12	EWR 21:08	38%	16%	1.5%	no record
B6 2128 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 21:02	EWR 23:44	39%	15%	1.9%	45%
B6 1728 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 21:08	EWR 23:49	40%	16%	1.9%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON