Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Grand Rapids on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → GRR 11:44DL 2547	6h 14m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:00 → MSP 09:26DL 1250	3h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 12:50 → GRR 15:19DL 1245	8h 19m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:02 → DTW 11:45DL 2845	1h 31m Detroit	DTW 13:16 → GRR 14:16DL 5390 · flown by Endeavor	5h 14m	95%	84%
Southwest Details →	MCO 08:51 → BWI 11:19WN 2693	2h 06m Baltimore	BWI 13:25 → GRR 15:15WN 1969	6h 24m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	MCO 11:17 → MSP 13:43DL 1730	2h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 16:02 → GRR 18:26DL 1555	7h 09m	99%	78%
United Details →	MCO 09:10 → EWR 11:53UA 1227	1h 59m Newark	EWR 13:52 → GRR 16:03UA 3419 · flown by Republic	6h 53m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	MCO 17:51 → DTW 20:54DL 337	2h 19m Detroit	DTW 23:13 → GRR 00:13 +1DL 4880 · flown by Endeavor	6h 22m	91%	75%
Delta Details →	MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 15:19 → GRR 17:14DL 2058	7h 09m	98%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MCO 18:52 → ATL 20:54DL 1742	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → GRR 23:54DL 2865	5h 02m	71%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON