Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2746 at 09:01 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23%.

Safest bet that day UA 2746 MCO 09:01 → IAD 11:30 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1997 MCO 19:05 → IAD 21:30 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2746 United	MCO 09:01	IAD 11:30	8%	3%	1.1%	no record
UA 1893 United Flight history →	MCO 09:37	IAD 11:55	10%	3%	1.1%	93%
F9 4230 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 08:08	IAD 10:42	12%	6%	1.1%	77%
UA 1757 United Flight history →	MCO 12:45	IAD 15:12	14%	6%	1.3%	83%
UA 390 United	MCO 18:28	IAD 21:00	23%	9%	1.5%	no record
UA 1997 United Flight history →	MCO 19:05	IAD 21:30	23%	10%	1.4%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON