Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 3915 at 00:59 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 3915 MCO 00:59 → IAH 02:50 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3469 MCO 19:33 → IAH 21:11 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3915 United	MCO 00:59	IAH 02:50	9%	6%	1.4%	no record
UA 468 United Flight history →	MCO 07:00	IAH 08:35	12%	4%	1.2%	95%
UA 2611 United Flight history →	MCO 09:10	IAH 10:45	13%	4%	1.1%	88%
UA 1493 United Flight history →	MCO 11:57	IAH 13:29	16%	6%	1.2%	95%worse than usual
UA 2406 United Flight history →	MCO 14:06	IAH 15:40	20%	8%	1.3%	87%
F9 1417 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:00	IAH 08:45	21%	6%	1.2%	87%
UA 1872 United Flight history →	MCO 17:19	IAH 18:58	25%	15%	1.4%	66%
UA 2456 United Flight history →	MCO 15:18	IAH 16:48	28%	12%	1.5%	89%worse than usual
F9 3469 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 19:33	IAH 21:11	32%	13%	1.7%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON