Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3629 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 3629 MCO 06:21 → IND 08:51 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2182 MCO 15:10 → IND 17:39 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3629 Southwest	MCO 06:21	IND 08:51	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
F9 1539 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:49	IND 09:26	8%	4%	1.2%	86%
WN 3125 Southwest	MCO 09:16	IND 11:45	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2756 Southwest	MCO 12:40	IND 15:09	18%	5%	0.9%	no record
WN 3867 Southwest	MCO 21:31	IND 00:01	26%	12%	0.8%	no record
WN 358 Southwest	MCO 17:09	IND 19:38	31%	15%	1.0%	no record
WN 2182 Southwest	MCO 15:10	IND 17:39	33%	15%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON