Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 322 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 322 MCO 07:45 → ISP 10:31 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2631 MCO 21:16 → ISP 00:02 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 322 Southwest	MCO 07:45	ISP 10:31	4%	2%	0.9%	no record
B6 546 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 13:05	ISP 15:53	21%	9%	1.2%	90%worse than usual
F9 1238 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 14:18	ISP 17:11	29%	15%	2.3%	83%worse than usual
WN 2631 Southwest	MCO 21:16	ISP 00:02	31%	8%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON