Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2702 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–49%.

Safest bet that day DL 2702 MCO 06:00 → JFK 08:43 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 2984 MCO 16:57 → JFK 19:37 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2702 Delta Flight history →	MCO 06:00	JFK 08:43	4%	2%	1.1%	93%
DL 2693 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:40	JFK 10:17	7%	3%	1.0%	88%
B6 884 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 06:02	JFK 08:43	9%	3%	1.1%	53%
DL 2049 Delta Flight history →	MCO 11:05	JFK 13:46	18%	6%	1.1%	82%
B6 384 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 09:47	JFK 12:30	18%	6%	1.0%	68%
DL 2775 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:22	JFK 18:45	27%	12%	1.7%	74%
B6 1084 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 12:06	JFK 14:46	29%	10%	1.3%	79%
DL 1685 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:57	JFK 22:31	32%	12%	1.5%	56%
B6 1184 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 18:51	JFK 21:31	42%	18%	1.8%	91%worse than usual
B6 2984 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 16:57	JFK 19:37	49%	20%	1.8%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON