Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2862 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39%.

Safest bet that day WN 2862 MCO 06:35 → LAS 08:27 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2416 MCO 17:11 → LAS 19:04 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2862 Southwest	MCO 06:35	LAS 08:27	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
F9 1875 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 05:58	LAS 07:55	13%	5%	1.0%	90%
B6 2821 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 09:42	LAS 11:34	18%	4%	0.7%	89%
WN 2734 Southwest	MCO 11:05	LAS 12:56	24%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 2736 Southwest	MCO 20:55	LAS 22:49	39%	10%	0.9%	no record
WN 2416 Southwest	MCO 17:11	LAS 19:04	39%	12%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → LAS 09:31DL 777	7h 01m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:46DL 2080	1h 09m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945	6h 55m	94%	79%
Delta Details →	MCO 08:05 → ATL 09:42DL 1463	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466	6h 57m	95%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON