Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2742 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 2742 MCO 06:45 → MDW 08:43 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3651 MCO 19:00 → MDW 20:59 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2742 Southwest	MCO 06:45	MDW 08:43	3%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 534 Southwest	MCO 10:10	MDW 12:07	11%	3%	1.4%	no record
WN 2771 Southwest	MCO 11:55	MDW 13:52	17%	5%	1.7%	no record
WN 693 Southwest	MCO 22:15	MDW 00:12	32%	11%	1.8%	no record
WN 2746 Southwest	MCO 17:25	MDW 19:22	35%	14%	3.0%	no record
WN 979 Southwest	MCO 15:30	MDW 17:27	37%	13%	3.2%	no record
WN 3651 Southwest	MCO 19:00	MDW 20:59	39%	12%	2.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON