Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 164 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 164 MCO 08:05 → MEM 09:16 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2129 MCO 17:15 → MEM 18:25 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 164 Southwest	MCO 08:05	MEM 09:16	8%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 3063 Southwest	MCO 20:50	MEM 22:01	34%	10%	1.3%	no record
F9 2129 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 17:15	MEM 18:25	36%	17%	3.4%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON