Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4802 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4802 Southwest	MCO 07:10	MHT 10:13	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 955 Southwest	MCO 20:15	MHT 23:15	30%	7%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Manchester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MCO 08:51 → BWI 11:19WN 2693	2h 11m Baltimore	BWI 13:30 → MHT 15:06WN 3432	6h 15m	100%	86%
American Details →	MCO 07:28 → PHL 10:05AA 1228	2h 50m Philadelphia	PHL 12:55 → MHT 14:29AA 5840 · flown by Piedmont	7h 01m	99%	86%
American Details →	MCO 08:24 → ORD 10:30AA 2279	3h 19m Chicago	ORD 13:49 → MHT 17:03AA 3720 · flown by Envoy	8h 39m	100%	75%
United Details →	MCO 12:45 → IAD 15:12UA 1757	2h 03m Dulles	IAD 17:15 → MHT 19:02UA 4932 · flown by CommuteAir	6h 17m	95%	70%
American Details →	MCO 11:39 → DCA 13:59AA 2128	57m Washington	DCA 14:56 → MHT 16:40AA 5295 · flown by PSA	5h 01m	78%	58%
American Details →	MCO 10:47 → PHL 13:31AA 629	3h 59m Philadelphia	PHL 17:30 → MHT 19:06AA 5942 · flown by Piedmont	8h 19m	99%	56%
American Details →	MCO 15:33 → ORD 17:40AA 3031	2h 19m Chicago	ORD 19:59 → MHT 23:30AA 4149 · flown by Envoy	7h 57m	91%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON