Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2760 at 07:55 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 2760 MCO 07:55 → MSY 08:49 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3389 MCO 17:50 → MSY 18:44 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2760 Southwest	MCO 07:55	MSY 08:49	7%	2%	1.0%	no record
MX 1511 Breeze	MCO 09:17	MSY 10:13	17%	4%	1.7%	no record
F9 1431 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 18:04	MSY 19:05	30%	16%	2.7%	82%worse than usual
WN 4713 Southwest	MCO 22:40	MSY 23:34	31%	11%	1.1%	no record
WN 2763 Southwest	MCO 14:00	MSY 15:01	34%	12%	1.5%	no record
WN 3389 Southwest	MCO 17:50	MSY 18:44	38%	17%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON