tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 653 at 18:30, with a 31% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 653 Southwest MCO 18:30 OKC 20:26 31% 12% 1.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oklahoma City is 1 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548 2h 03m Atlanta ATL 09:08 → OKC 10:14DL 2490 5h 44m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → OKC 12:14DL 2020 6h 59m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → MCO 09:10 → IAH 10:45UA 2611 3h 50m Houston IAH 14:35 → OKC 16:15UA 6189 · flown by Mesa 8h 05m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:35UA 468 1h 11m Houston IAH 09:46 → OKC 11:22UA 4344 · flown by CommuteAir 5h 22m 92% 77%
AmericanDetails → MCO 06:57 → CLT 08:46AA 1647 2h 29m Charlotte CLT 11:15 → OKC 12:56AA 1626 6h 59m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → OKC 16:22DL 2862 7h 17m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677 1h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:08 → OKC 10:20AA 1902 5h 50m 96% 75%
DeltaDetails → MCO 17:45 → ATL 19:47DL 1150 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 22:44 → OKC 23:52DL 2423 7h 07m 94% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MCO 19:55 → ATL 21:48DL 1497 56m Atlanta ATL 22:44 → OKC 23:52DL 2423 4h 57m 70% 55%
UnitedDetails → MCO 17:19 → IAH 18:58UA 1872 58m Houston IAH 19:56 → OKC 21:27UA 1084 5h 08m 74% 53%
UnitedDetails → MCO 17:17 → DEN 19:45UA 1770 57m Denver DEN 20:42 → OKC 23:29UA 4727 · flown by SkyWest 7h 12m 66% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON