Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 44% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025	1h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:17 → ONT 12:16DL 1173	8h 01m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665	8h 08m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:05 → SEA 12:12DL 347	2h 18m Seattle	SEA 14:30 → ONT 17:21DL 4031 · flown by SkyWest	11h 16m	99%	80%
Frontier Details →	MCO 05:58 → LAS 07:55F9 1875	2h 01m Las Vegas	LAS 09:56 → ONT 11:16F9 1283	8h 18m	98%	78%
Frontier Details →	MCO 05:35 → DEN 07:33F9 1733	1h 12m Denver	DEN 08:45 → ONT 10:04F9 2907	7h 29m	93%	75%
American Details →	MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677	1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:28 → ONT 09:41AA 1820	7h 11m	95%	74%
American Details →	MCO 07:30 → DFW 09:29AA 599	2h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:14 → ONT 13:32AA 2635	9h 02m	100%	71%
United Details →	MCO 15:18 → IAH 16:48UA 2456	3h 43m Houston	IAH 20:31 → ONT 21:55UA 1563	9h 37m	97%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	MCO 17:29 → PDX 20:34AS 301	1h 00m Portland	PDX 21:34 → ONT 00:05 +1AS 534	9h 36m	70%	55%
Delta Details →	MCO 19:25 → SLC 22:11DL 1691	48m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614	7h 23m	44%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON