Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 938 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–51%.

Safest bet that day AA 938 MCO 06:30 → ORD 08:36 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1782 MCO 16:58 → ORD 19:14 · 51% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 938 American Flight history →	MCO 06:30	ORD 08:36	6%	3%	1.3%	91%
UA 2466 United Flight history →	MCO 09:04	ORD 11:10	10%	5%	1.0%	92%
UA 2683 United Flight history →	MCO 09:40	ORD 11:48	11%	5%	1.0%	94%
AA 2279 American Flight history →	MCO 08:24	ORD 10:30	11%	6%	1.4%	76%
UA 1993 United	MCO 07:16	ORD 09:21	11%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 662 American	MCO 11:41	ORD 13:47	27%	11%	4.3%	no record
UA 2475 United Flight history →	MCO 12:34	ORD 14:42	27%	14%	1.5%	82%
UA 1621 United Flight history →	MCO 19:40	ORD 22:00	36%	20%	1.4%	70%
F9 1349 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 20:45	ORD 22:57	38%	20%	3.2%	76%worse than usual
UA 2481 United Flight history →	MCO 14:25	ORD 16:43	40%	20%	1.6%	72%worse than usual
AA 3031 American Flight history →	MCO 15:33	ORD 17:40	44%	21%	3.7%	64%
UA 2845 United	MCO 18:02	ORD 20:10	46%	24%	1.7%	no record
UA 2071 United Flight history →	MCO 16:21	ORD 18:39	46%	20%	1.5%	58%
AA 1782 American Flight history →	MCO 16:58	ORD 19:14	51%	21%	2.5%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON