Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2799 at 08:55 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 2799 MCO 08:55 → ORF 11:04 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2288 MCO 20:12 → ORF 23:03 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2799 Southwest	MCO 08:55	ORF 11:04	7%	2%	0.9%	no record
MX 1335 Breeze	MCO 12:57	ORF 15:06	18%	7%	2.0%	no record
F9 2288 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 20:12	ORF 23:03	31%	15%	3.0%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON