Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 301 Alaska Flight history →	MCO 17:29	PDX 20:34	30%	9%	1.4%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 07:00 → MSP 09:26DL 1250	1h 33m Minneapolis	MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:40DL 1661	8h 40m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → PDX 10:25DL 539	7h 55m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	9h 43m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MCO 11:17 → MSP 13:43DL 1730	2h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008	9h 18m	99%	82%
Frontier Details →	MCO 05:35 → DEN 07:33F9 1733	2h 23m Denver	DEN 09:56 → PDX 11:58F9 2553	9h 23m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025	1h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	7h 55m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	MCO 06:28 → LAX 08:35DL 484	1h 25m Los Angeles	LAX 10:00 → PDX 12:20DL 2766	8h 52m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	MCO 12:05 → ATL 13:45DL 1658	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503	9h 51m	98%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MCO 15:00 → MSP 17:39DL 1208	55m Minneapolis	MSP 18:34 → PDX 20:15DL 2151	8h 15m	70%	55%
United Details →	MCO 19:03 → SFO 21:50UA 2620	1h 02m San Francisco	SFO 22:52 → PDX 00:50 +1UA 2384	8h 47m	68%	49%
United Details →	MCO 14:37 → EWR 17:30UA 1643	1h 15m Newark	EWR 18:45 → PDX 21:48UA 560	10h 11m	70%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON