Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2188 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 2188 MCO 08:05 → PHL 10:46 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2508 MCO 21:41 → PHL 00:29 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2188 Southwest	MCO 08:05	PHL 10:46	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1228 American Flight history →	MCO 07:28	PHL 10:05	8%	3%	1.1%	94%
AA 2779 American Flight history →	MCO 08:24	PHL 11:06	9%	4%	1.0%	81%
AA 629 American Flight history →	MCO 10:47	PHL 13:31	12%	5%	1.2%	92%
F9 2506 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:14	PHL 08:51	12%	5%	1.3%	69%
F9 1542 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 09:00	PHL 11:35	18%	7%	1.3%	87%
AA 1574 American	MCO 12:28	PHL 15:12	21%	8%	1.3%	no record
F9 3856 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 11:59	PHL 14:34	30%	13%	1.8%	70%
AA 2952 American Flight history →	MCO 19:22	PHL 22:05	32%	12%	1.7%	59%
WN 4892 Southwest	MCO 21:15	PHL 23:55	32%	11%	1.1%	no record
AA 153 American	MCO 16:19	PHL 19:05	32%	12%	1.7%	no record
AA 3268 American	MCO 15:15	PHL 17:58	33%	13%	2.2%	no record
AA 2523 American	MCO 17:44	PHL 20:27	34%	16%	1.6%	no record
F9 4404 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 19:18	PHL 22:06	39%	18%	2.4%	59%
F9 2508 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 21:41	PHL 00:29	40%	16%	2.2%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON