tailodds FORECAST
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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2776 at 09:20 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 2776 MCO 09:20 → PHX 10:48 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 458 MCO 20:50 → PHX 22:17 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 2776 Southwest MCO 09:20 PHX 10:48 17% 3% 0.8% no record
AA 1605 American MCO 07:45 PHX 09:20 17% 5% 0.7% no record
AA 2955 American MCO 17:32 PHX 19:13 30% 14% 1.2% no record
WN 4405 Southwest MCO 14:20 PHX 15:48 30% 11% 1.0% no record
WN 458 Southwest MCO 20:50 PHX 22:17 32% 11% 1.2% no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 08:10 → PHX 09:01DL 348 6h 31m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:35UA 468 1h 05m Houston IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895 6h 34m 90% 69%
AmericanDetails → MCO 08:33 → DFW 10:31AA 2961 1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:42 → PHX 12:10AA 359 6h 37m 93% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON