Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 563 at 06:46 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 563 MCO 06:46 → PIT 09:14 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3281 MCO 15:40 → PIT 18:05 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 563 Southwest	MCO 06:46	PIT 09:14	2%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 389 Southwest	MCO 09:05	PIT 11:31	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 3820 Southwest	MCO 11:55	PIT 14:21	11%	5%	0.9%	no record
F9 1620 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 11:04	PIT 13:38	18%	10%	0.8%	77%
WN 2193 Southwest	MCO 21:20	PIT 23:46	23%	9%	0.9%	no record
WN 2783 Southwest	MCO 18:10	PIT 20:36	27%	11%	1.0%	no record
WN 3281 Southwest	MCO 15:40	PIT 18:05	27%	12%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON