tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
MX 1939 Breeze MCO 11:29 PNS 12:09 21% 6% 2.0% no record
F9 4661 Frontier Flight history → MCO 12:34 PNS 13:19 22% 13% 2.0% 74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pensacola is 1 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548 1h 00m Atlanta ATL 08:05 → PNS 08:17DL 3103 3h 47m 95% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198 5h 36m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:46DL 2080 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → PNS 12:41DL 1640 6h 36m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 15:00 → PNS 15:13DL 1013 6h 08m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → MCO 12:05 → ATL 13:45DL 1658 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211 5h 58m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → MCO 14:05 → ATL 15:55DL 1030 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 19:49 → PNS 20:04DL 3021 6h 59m 97% 72%
AmericanDetails → MCO 07:30 → DFW 09:29AA 599 1h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:03 → PNS 12:59AA 2863 6h 29m 97% 69%
AmericanDetails → MCO 08:33 → DFW 10:31AA 2961 2h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:49 → PNS 14:47AA 2328 7h 14m 100% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MCO 14:05 → ATL 15:55DL 1030 53m Atlanta ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211 3h 58m 65% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON