Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 215 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 215 MCO 07:40 → PVD 10:34 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2573 MCO 15:35 → PVD 18:29 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 215 Southwest	MCO 07:40	PVD 10:34	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 866 Southwest	MCO 21:50	PVD 00:44	26%	6%	1.0%	no record
B6 1075 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 14:03	PVD 16:58	30%	13%	1.5%	69%
WN 2573 Southwest	MCO 15:35	PVD 18:29	31%	11%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON