Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1183 at 08:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 1183 MCO 08:01 → RDU 09:56 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2788 MCO 15:55 → RDU 17:50 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1183 Southwest	MCO 08:01	RDU 09:56	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
DL 1337 Delta Flight history →	MCO 08:43	RDU 10:26	10%	3%	0.9%	88%
F9 1112 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:24	RDU 09:28	12%	6%	1.6%	80%
MX 1303 Breeze	MCO 07:07	RDU 09:03	13%	4%	1.3%	no record
DL 1312 Delta Flight history →	MCO 14:10	RDU 16:07	24%	9%	1.6%	77%
MX 1808 Breeze	MCO 13:31	RDU 15:27	29%	9%	1.8%	no record
DL 1370 Delta Flight history →	MCO 20:00	RDU 21:55	31%	11%	1.7%	70%
F9 1786 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 14:35	RDU 16:37	32%	17%	2.2%	77%
MX 2071 Breeze	MCO 16:24	RDU 18:19	37%	10%	2.6%	no record
WN 2789 Southwest	MCO 20:55	RDU 22:50	38%	12%	1.3%	no record
WN 2788 Southwest	MCO 15:55	RDU 17:50	41%	14%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON