tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 32–38% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
B6 670 JetBlue Flight history → MCO 14:07 RIC 16:16 32% 14% 1.6% 83%worse than usual
WN 698 Southwest MCO 15:20 RIC 17:26 38% 13% 2.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → RIC 11:56DL 2650 6h 26m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → MCO 07:28 → PHL 10:05AA 1228 3h 07m Philadelphia PHL 13:12 → RIC 14:35AA 5843 · flown by Piedmont 7h 07m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:02 → DTW 11:45DL 2845 2h 40m Detroit DTW 14:25 → RIC 16:06DL 3073 7h 04m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:46DL 2080 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → RIC 14:12DL 3152 7h 07m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → MCO 09:10 → IAH 10:45UA 2611 1h 18m Houston IAH 12:03 → RIC 16:11UA 4057 · flown by Mesa 7h 01m 94% 82%
UnitedDetails → MCO 09:37 → IAD 11:55UA 1893 1h 05m Dulles IAD 13:00 → RIC 14:01UA 4535 · flown by GoJet 4h 24m 92% 81%
UnitedDetails → MCO 09:10 → EWR 11:53UA 1227 3h 32m Newark EWR 15:25 → RIC 17:08UA 3639 · flown by Republic 7h 58m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → MCO 11:05 → ATL 12:42DL 1213 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 15:45 → RIC 17:26DL 1214 6h 21m 98% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MCO 17:51 → DTW 20:54DL 337 46m Detroit DTW 21:40 → RIC 23:28DL 4679 · flown by Endeavor 5h 37m 64% 47%
JetBlueDetails → MCO 18:25 → FLL 19:37B6 1947 1h 18m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:55 → RIC 23:18B6 1146 4h 53m 61% 40%
JetBlueDetails → MCO 15:49 → BOS 19:00B6 1152 1h 04m Boston BOS 20:04 → RIC 22:04B6 381 6h 15m 59% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON