Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: B6 1042 at 10:00 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


B6 1042 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 10:00	ROC 12:50	15%	6%	0.8%	65%
WN 2791 Southwest	MCO 16:20	ROC 19:05	28%	12%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rochester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 09:23 → ROC 11:31DL 2511	6h 01m	98%	84%
American Details →	MCO 07:28 → PHL 10:05AA 1228	3h 12m Philadelphia	PHL 13:17 → ROC 14:48AA 5907 · flown by Piedmont	7h 17m	99%	76%
United Details →	MCO 09:37 → IAD 11:55UA 1893	55m Dulles	IAD 12:50 → ROC 14:18UA 4485 · flown by GoJet	4h 41m	89%	75%
Delta Details →	MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → ROC 17:20DL 2047	7h 15m	98%	70%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:02 → DTW 11:45DL 2845	2h 40m Detroit	DTW 14:25 → ROC 15:48DL 5211 · flown by Endeavor	6h 46m	99%	70%
Delta Details →	MCO 11:05 → JFK 13:46DL 2049	3h 04m New York	JFK 16:50 → ROC 18:41DL 5299 · flown by Endeavor	7h 34m	97%	68%
American Details →	MCO 11:39 → DCA 13:59AA 2128	1h 37m Washington	DCA 15:36 → ROC 17:03AA 5457 · flown by PSA	5h 24m	94%	68%
United Details →	MCO 12:45 → IAD 15:12UA 1757	2h 18m Dulles	IAD 17:30 → ROC 19:05UA 4871 · flown by CommuteAir	6h 20m	96%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON