tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2792 at 10:45 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2792 Southwest MCO 10:45 RSW 11:54 15% 5% 1.1% no record
WN 2953 Southwest MCO 22:25 RSW 23:34 33% 11% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548 1h 00m Atlanta ATL 08:05 → RSW 09:43DL 1089 4h 13m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:02 → DTW 11:45DL 2845 2h 43m Detroit DTW 14:28 → RSW 17:22DL 1225 8h 20m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153 5h 56m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → MCO 08:05 → ATL 09:42DL 1463 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 12:53 → RSW 14:35DL 1196 6h 30m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → MCO 06:57 → CLT 08:46AA 1647 2h 11m Charlotte CLT 10:57 → RSW 13:02AA 2018 6h 05m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → MCO 07:28 → PHL 10:05AA 1228 1h 14m Philadelphia PHL 11:19 → RSW 14:21AA 507 6h 53m 94% 75%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → RSW 16:44DL 1379 6h 39m 97% 74%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677 2h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:32 → RSW 13:22AA 2740 7h 52m 98% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MCO 14:37 → EWR 17:30UA 1643 1h 17m Newark EWR 18:47 → RSW 21:57UA 2188 7h 20m 72% 47%
DeltaDetails → MCO 19:55 → ATL 21:48DL 1497 52m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → RSW 00:23 +1DL 1217 4h 28m 66% 47%
AmericanDetails → MCO 15:46 → DFW 17:45AA 1737 1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:51 → RSW 22:38AA 1267 6h 52m 67% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON