Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 347 at 09:05 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–36%.

Safest bet that day DL 347 MCO 09:05 → SEA 12:12 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AS 419 MCO 18:41 → SEA 21:33 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 347 Delta Flight history →	MCO 09:05	SEA 12:12	15%	3%	1.2%	86%
AS 461 Alaska	MCO 07:00	SEA 09:50	20%	3%	1.1%	no record
AS 1318 Alaska	MCO 09:59	SEA 12:48	24%	4%	1.2%	no record
DL 328 Delta Flight history →	MCO 18:45	SEA 22:05	27%	9%	1.2%	68%
AS 419 Alaska Flight history →	MCO 18:41	SEA 21:33	36%	9%	1.2%	77%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:46DL 2080	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	8h 08m	93%	78%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025	1h 40m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	8h 34m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	MCO 11:17 → MSP 13:43DL 1730	1h 32m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	8h 43m	95%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON