Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809	9h 00m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:05 → SEA 12:12DL 347	2h 33m Seattle	SEA 14:45 → SJC 17:05DL 3897 · flown by SkyWest	11h 00m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025	1h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:50 → SJC 12:45DL 1254	8h 30m	98%	79%
American Details →	MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677	1h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:09 → SJC 11:06AA 2046	8h 36m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	MCO 12:05 → ATL 13:45DL 1658	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136	9h 47m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:45 → LAX 11:49DL 504	1h 08m Los Angeles	LAX 12:57 → SJC 14:12DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest	7h 27m	89%	74%
Delta Details →	MCO 06:28 → LAX 08:35DL 484	51m Los Angeles	LAX 09:26 → SJC 10:46DL 1380	7h 18m	86%	72%
American Details →	MCO 07:30 → DFW 09:29AA 599	2h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:55 → SJC 13:52AA 2834	9h 22m	99%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MCO 14:05 → ATL 15:55DL 1030	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136	7h 47m	75%	58%
Delta Details →	MCO 15:00 → MSP 17:39DL 1208	51m Minneapolis	MSP 18:30 → SJC 20:35DL 2087	8h 35m	66%	48%
United Details →	MCO 16:21 → ORD 18:39UA 2071	1h 19m Chicago	ORD 19:58 → SJC 22:43UA 481	9h 22m	70%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON