Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2801 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 2801 MCO 06:15 → SJU 09:16 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 1333 MCO 15:56 → SJU 19:02 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2801 Southwest	MCO 06:15	SJU 09:16	4%	1%	0.8%	no record
F9 3506 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:29	SJU 09:41	12%	4%	2.1%	68%
B6 1033 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 07:11	SJU 10:15	13%	4%	1.4%	74%
WN 406 Southwest	MCO 10:50	SJU 13:52	19%	4%	1.1%	no record
F9 4726 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 23:17	SJU 02:15	23%	10%	2.7%	77%
B6 133 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 11:10	SJU 14:11	24%	8%	2.3%	86%worse than usual
F9 2250 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 11:13	SJU 14:22	26%	8%	2.9%	87%worse than usual
B6 1133 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 12:33	SJU 15:39	26%	10%	1.8%	72%
WN 2257 Southwest	MCO 22:30	SJU 01:32	27%	6%	0.9%	no record
WN 3887 Southwest	MCO 13:10	SJU 16:08	27%	7%	0.9%	no record
WN 719 Southwest	MCO 20:20	SJU 23:18	29%	10%	1.2%	no record
F9 1824 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 13:44	SJU 16:49	30%	11%	2.7%	79%
WN 3713 Southwest	MCO 14:05	SJU 17:07	31%	8%	1.1%	no record
F9 2868 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 20:09	SJU 23:18	31%	12%	3.3%	64%
WN 3542 Southwest	MCO 17:27	SJU 20:27	32%	11%	1.3%	no record
B6 433 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 19:06	SJU 22:13	33%	14%	2.0%	69%
B6 1333 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 15:56	SJU 19:02	40%	15%	2.6%	75%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON