tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2520 Southwest MCO 09:30 SMF 12:06 15% 3% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904 8h 30m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025 1h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 8h 01m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:05 → SEA 12:12DL 347 2h 28m Seattle SEA 14:40 → SMF 16:39DL 4153 · flown by SkyWest 10h 34m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:00 → MSP 09:26DL 1250 58m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 8h 09m 94% 79%
FrontierDetails → MCO 05:35 → DEN 07:33F9 1733 1h 23m Denver DEN 08:56 → SMF 10:42F9 3665 8h 07m 95% 78%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 08:51 → BWI 11:19WN 2693 2h 31m Baltimore BWI 13:50 → SMF 16:37WN 1168 10h 46m 100% 74%
UnitedDetails → MCO 12:45 → IAD 15:12UA 1757 2h 59m Dulles IAD 18:11 → SMF 21:01UA 8284 11h 16m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:45 → LAX 11:49DL 504 2h 13m Los Angeles LAX 14:02 → SMF 15:28DL 8929 8h 43m 98% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MCO 19:25 → SLC 22:11DL 1691 53m Salt Lake City SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582 7h 19m 53% 41%
DeltaDetails → MCO 15:38 → ATL 17:13DL 1576 46m Atlanta ATL 17:59 → SMF 19:53DL 743 7h 15m 52% 34%
UnitedDetails → MCO 16:21 → ORD 18:39UA 2071 1h 14m Chicago ORD 19:53 → SMF 22:39UA 1828 9h 18m 68% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON