tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Bush, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:35UA 468 3h 58m Houston IAH 12:33 → SNA 14:20UA 1533 10h 20m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:00 → MSP 09:26DL 1250 1h 34m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SNA 12:54DL 2081 8h 54m 97% 77%
FrontierDetails → MCO 05:35 → DEN 07:33F9 1733 1h 27m Denver DEN 09:00 → SNA 10:28F9 4371 7h 53m 95% 77%
UnitedDetails → MCO 12:45 → IAD 15:12UA 1757 2h 30m Dulles IAD 17:42 → SNA 20:19UA 2319 10h 34m 96% 77%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677 1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:27 → SNA 09:43AA 2114 7h 13m 95% 74%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 10h 01m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → MCO 08:09 → SFO 10:53UA 2855 1h 38m San Francisco SFO 12:31 → SNA 14:20UA 2441 9h 11m 99% 73%
UnitedDetails → MCO 09:10 → EWR 11:53UA 1227 2h 48m Newark EWR 14:41 → SNA 17:37UA 2477 11h 27m 99% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MCO 15:00 → MSP 17:39DL 1208 49m Minneapolis MSP 18:28 → SNA 20:20DL 2107 8h 20m 63% 44%
UnitedDetails → MCO 17:17 → DEN 19:45UA 1770 47m Denver DEN 20:32 → SNA 22:01UA 725 7h 44m 56% 37%
UnitedDetails → MCO 16:21 → ORD 18:39UA 2071 1h 06m Chicago ORD 19:45 → SNA 22:19UA 308 8h 58m 61% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON