tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 26–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2403 Southwest MCO 11:05 SRQ 11:53 26% 5% 1.7% no record
WN 3517 Southwest MCO 22:50 SRQ 23:47 35% 13% 2.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548 1h 12m Atlanta ATL 08:17 → SRQ 09:52DL 3196 4h 22m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104 5h 29m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:05 → ATL 10:45DL 1505 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 13:43 → SRQ 15:22DL 3115 6h 17m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204 3h 53m Atlanta ATL 15:34 → SRQ 17:13DL 3109 7h 08m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → MCO 17:45 → ATL 19:47DL 1150 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997 7h 00m 95% 74%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:00 → LGA 09:41DL 1573 47m New York LGA 10:28 → SRQ 13:33DL 2412 6h 33m 87% 71%
DeltaDetails → MCO 15:40 → ATL 17:30DL 1372 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52DL 1057 7h 12m 93% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MCO 13:05 → ATL 14:44DL 664 50m Atlanta ATL 15:34 → SRQ 17:13DL 3109 4h 08m 66% 50%
AmericanDetails → MCO 20:23 → MIA 21:36AA 1642 1h 18m Miami MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy 3h 36m 69% 48%
UnitedDetails → MCO 16:04 → EWR 18:57UA 2629 1h 12m Newark EWR 20:09 → SRQ 23:15UA 1324 7h 11m 66% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON