Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2811 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 2811 MCO 06:03 → STL 07:38 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2814 MCO 16:51 → STL 18:26 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2811 Southwest	MCO 06:03	STL 07:38	4%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 2812 Southwest	MCO 08:17	STL 09:52	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 2813 Southwest	MCO 12:04	STL 13:38	19%	5%	0.9%	no record
WN 2658 Southwest	MCO 14:19	STL 15:54	33%	10%	1.1%	no record
WN 509 Southwest	MCO 22:20	STL 23:55	33%	9%	0.8%	no record
F9 2635 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 14:57	STL 16:39	34%	13%	1.9%	72%
WN 2753 Southwest	MCO 20:37	STL 22:14	34%	11%	1.0%	no record
WN 2814 Southwest	MCO 16:51	STL 18:26	36%	12%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON