Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 4810 at 11:00, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4810 Southwest	MCO 11:00	STT 14:08	22%	6%	1.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte Amalie on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MCO 06:01 → MIA 07:12AA 2894	2h 43m Miami	MIA 09:55 → STT 12:47AA 943	6h 46m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 10:16 → STT 14:07DL 1899	8h 37m	99%	77%
JetBlue Details →	MCO 07:11 → SJU 10:15B6 1033	3h 55m San Juan	SJU 14:10 → STT 14:48B6 936	7h 37m	99%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON