tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 2065 at 18:50, with a 31% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2065 Southwest MCO 18:50 TUL 20:49 31% 11% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MCO 11:57 → IAH 13:29UA 1493 3h 01m Houston IAH 16:30 → TUL 18:08UA 6171 · flown by Mesa 7h 11m 95% 94%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548 1h 15m Atlanta ATL 08:20 → TUL 09:18DL 2754 4h 48m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620 6h 41m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → MCO 06:57 → CLT 08:46AA 1647 2h 39m Charlotte CLT 11:25 → TUL 13:01AA 2657 7h 04m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → MCO 09:10 → IAH 10:45UA 2611 3h 50m Houston IAH 14:35 → TUL 16:15UA 4239 · flown by CommuteAir 8h 05m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → MCO 17:19 → IAH 18:58UA 1872 2h 44m Houston IAH 21:42 → TUL 23:15UA 6179 · flown by Mesa 6h 56m 93% 78%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 14:55 → TUL 15:53DL 1186 6h 48m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → MCO 15:18 → IAH 16:48UA 2456 3h 26m Houston IAH 20:14 → TUL 21:52UA 6269 · flown by Mesa 7h 34m 96% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MCO 17:17 → DEN 19:45UA 1770 1h 10m Denver DEN 20:55 → TUL 23:47UA 4712 · flown by SkyWest 7h 30m 74% 49%
UnitedDetails → MCO 12:34 → ORD 14:42UA 2475 53m Chicago ORD 15:35 → TUL 17:42UA 4482 · flown by GoJet 6h 08m 63% 47%
AmericanDetails → MCO 15:46 → DFW 17:45AA 1737 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:36 → TUL 19:53AA 3715 · flown by Envoy 5h 07m 47% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON