Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 1760 at 17:15, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1760 Southwest	MCO 17:15	TYS 19:04	29%	10%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 08:36 → TYS 09:40DL 1817	4h 10m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → TYS 11:10DL 1743	4h 55m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:05 → ATL 10:45DL 1505	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 13:52 → TYS 14:48DL 1148	5h 43m	99%	81%
American Details →	MCO 09:01 → CLT 10:54AA 609	3h 30m Charlotte	CLT 14:24 → TYS 15:42AA 5831 · flown by Piedmont	6h 41m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:46DL 2080	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → TYS 13:16DL 4724 · flown by Endeavor	6h 14m	99%	79%
American Details →	MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677	2h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:40 → TYS 12:53AA 2544	7h 23m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	MCO 11:05 → ATL 12:42DL 1213	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 16:16 → TYS 17:16DL 2571	6h 11m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	MCO 12:05 → ATL 13:45DL 1658	4h 00m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → TYS 18:44DL 3042	6h 39m	98%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MCO 17:19 → IAH 18:58UA 1872	52m Houston	IAH 19:50 → TYS 23:12UA 6206 · flown by Mesa	5h 53m	69%	50%
Delta Details →	MCO 17:45 → ATL 19:47DL 1150	57m Atlanta	ATL 20:44 → TYS 21:49DL 5224 · flown by Endeavor	4h 04m	69%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON